Forecast Timing and Reputational Concerns: Theory and Evidence
نویسنده
چکیده
I develop a model in which analysts strategically time and exaggerate their forecasts to convince the public that they are skilled. The model’s key predictions are that an analyst will tend to forecast later if he has a better ex ante reputation, and he will tend to forecast earlier if the quality of public information is lower. Using a database of individual analysts’ earnings forecasts, I empirically test and find support for both of these predictions.
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